Tourney Time!

Well ladies and gentlemen, it's that time of year again.  It's time to get out those brackets and fill them in way you hope the NCAA tournament to go.  Although given that it's the NCAAs, don't expect your brackets to go as smoothly.  But don't worry.  It's not just you.

Everyone is going to pin their hopes on someone to either make the Final Four or win it all, only to have that plan go awry at the hands of a team who you've either never heard of, or by a mid-major that got lucky. 

The best team who I have losing to UNC though, in the Sweet Sixteen.

Nonetheless, it's still a fun enterprise, even for amateurs.  I've done it all with regard to the bracket picks over the years and if there's one thing I learned, it's follow your gut.  If you don't have a good feeling about a team or you find yourself picking a team just because they're a one seed, don't take them.  There's a reason it doesn't seem like you believe in them.  Listen to yourself.

That being said, here is an overview of some of the methods that people use each year, along with my thoughts on each...

1) Pick all higher seeded teams

This is a valid method and probability does suggest you would do quite well.  However, remember that some years all number one seeds have been gone before the Final Four.  It's usually a safe assumption that most will make it past their first few rounds, but that's not always the case.  I like this method, except for the fact that it takes the fun out of picking a few upsets here and there that allow you to get ahead of others in your pool who pick higher seeds out of laziness.

If you feel like you're picking a #1 seed or other highly seeded team just because the media and  your friends are, does not mean you should if you feel uneasy about it. 

I just picked Syracuse in the bracket from my buddy Pete (called UConn, if anyone is interested in joining) but I don't feel good about them and probably won't pick them in any other brackets because they haven't proven themselves and I don't think they will this year either.

2) Pick all lower seeded teams

People do this, but remember that probability does not favor this outcome.  No #1 seed has ever ever ever lost to a #16 team, and it's unlikely to happen in the future.  Sometimes history can be a good guide.

3) Pick based on the mascots

I know people, women especially, who do this.  I have no opinion or data on the statistical aspect of whether or not this works, but I do not recommend it.  It might be unique and a non-mainstream way to go about the bracket, but I don't think it pans out.  Unless you get a good combination of mascots associated with good teams.  Most people I know go for "cuteness" of mascot as their criteria for selecting each game.  This rarely is helpful to their chances.

I bet this person, who picked the St. Peter's Peacocks based on cuteness alone, didn't do very well since they bowed out in the first round.

4) Coin flip method

For this, pick all top teams from the beginning to the Sweet Sixteen, except flip a coin when you have the dreaded 8/9 matchup.  From the Sweet Sixteen, flip a coin for each matchup that you have.  Again, this worked for a friend of mine once, but I have never tried it myself.  Go for it if you dare.

5) The "More Famous" Method

Any school that's worth its weight will have some sort of celebrity alumni.  Do a little research. Pick based on that.  For example, let's say you're torn between Wichita State and VCU.  If you go on Wikipedia, look up their notable alumni.  Wichita State: most notable would be Dennis Rader (the BTK serial killer).  VCU: none were found. There you go!  Easy as pie.

6) The coolest method to picking the NCAA tournament bracket?

Cut out all the teams into their own piece of paper. Go to the top of the Empire State Building (or Sears Tower, but do not use the Statue of Liberty as the prevalence of water defeats the purpose) and toss them off.

Run to the bottom of the Empire State Building and fight past the doorman to find your shreds of paper. If you are lucky enough to find a single one, pick that team to win the whole thing no matter what. It is fate personified.

I hope everybody does a bracket and has fun.  Most importantly, go with your gut.  You can research all you want but at the end of the day, just pick who you want and have fun.  Also, did you know that most upsets occur in the 12/5 seed matchup?  You should have at least one of those.   

Good luck to Temple and also to Elena Delledonne and the University of Delaware women who won their CAA Conference Tournament yesterday.